# How much of the time prices sit at their lowest observed level at tracked UAE retailers

- URL: https://www.desertracker.com/research/how-often-prices-sit-at-their-low-uae
- Data window: 1 May 2026 to 31 July 2026
- First published: 25 September 2026
- Last updated: 25 September 2026
- Method version: time_at_low@m2.r2
- Scope: Data from tracked UAE retailers.
- How to cite: DeserTracker UAE Price Index, How much of the time prices sit at their lowest observed level at tracked UAE retailers, September 2026, https://www.desertracker.com/research/how-often-prices-sit-at-their-low-uae
- License: The aggregate figures of this study are licensed under CC BY 4.0. Credit DeserTracker UAE Price Index and link to this page. Raw store data is not licensed. CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)
- Downloads: JSON https://www.desertracker.com/research/how-often-prices-sit-at-their-low-uae/facts.json, CSV https://www.desertracker.com/research/how-often-prices-sit-at-their-low-uae/facts.csv, Markdown https://www.desertracker.com/research/how-often-prices-sit-at-their-low-uae/study.md

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## TL;DR
- We followed 569,522 products with an in-stock recorded price at the window start.
- The median product spent 20.0% of its covered, in-stock time at its lowest observed price.
- Among products whose low was below their starting price, the median difference was 13.4%.

## Findings

### Which products we followed
We followed 569,522 products with an in-stock recorded price at 1 May 2026, through 31 July 2026. Another 477,015 products had a recorded price during the window but none at its start, so they were excluded.

### Time at the lowest observed price
The median product spent 20.0% of its covered, in-stock time at its lowest observed price, or 6.0 days. The lower and upper quartiles of that time share were 8.4% and 56.3%. The median share of time near the low was 23.2%.

### How far below the starting price the low was
For 35.3% of followed products, the starting price was also their lowest observed price. Among the 404,734 products whose low was below their starting price, the median difference was 13.4%.

### Why the low is known only afterwards
The low is defined using observations through 31 July 2026. A later price can undercut an earlier one, so a shopper cannot know during the window whether today's price will remain the lowest observed since 1 May 2026.

### How to use this when you shop
Use the time-at-low share to understand how long an observed low persisted, not to predict the next price. A price matching the lowest observed since 1 May 2026 may still be followed by a lower one.

## Method
Prices are recorded when they change, not on a schedule. Collection coverage: Before the daily check counter started, collection is inferred from the daily count of recorded price and stock changes per retailer. A quiet day and a stopped collector look the same, so days with less than half of the usual count are excluded. From the counter start, a day counts only when enough price checks succeeded that day. Facts computed: 25 September 2026.

Lowest observed means the lowest price we recorded for a product from 1 May 2026 to 31 July 2026. It says nothing about prices before or after that window.

We follow only products that had an in-stock recorded price at the window start, so every product has the same window.

Out-of-stock time and collection gaps count neither as time at the low nor as time above it.

Near the low means no more than the price-cut percentage minimum on the method page above the low.

Each product counts once; no single store supplies more than half of the weight. The figures are medians across products.

## What we could not measure
| From | To | Reason |
| --- | --- | --- |
| 6 May 2026 | 7 May 2026 | collection gap |
| 6 May 2026 | 7 May 2026 | low activity |
| 9 May 2026 | 10 May 2026 | low activity |
| 12 May 2026 | 15 May 2026 | low activity |
| 7 June 2026 | 7 June 2026 | low activity |
| 9 June 2026 | 9 June 2026 | low activity |
| 15 June 2026 | 16 June 2026 | low activity |
| 3 July 2026 | 16 July 2026 | low activity |

| What we could not measure |
| --- |
| Products we no longer check are not in this study, so products that left a store are missing. |
| For part of our collection, a change in stock with no change in price leaves no record, so some out-of-stock time counts as time at the last price. |
| We do not know why a price changed. A promotion, a seller change, and a correction look the same in our records. |
| Delivery fees, coupons, and membership prices are not in the recorded price. |
| The lowest price is known only after the window ends. At the time, a shopper cannot know that a price is the lowest in the window. |
| Products first seen after the window start are not in this study. |
| After a collection gap, time counts again only from the next recorded price of a product. |
| Coverage is measured per store and day, not per product. |
| Some stores were left out because collection was incomplete or they had too few products. |

## FAQ

### How often is a product at its lowest observed price?

The median product spent 20.0% of its covered, in-stock time at that price.

### Can I tell when a price is the lowest it will be?

No. The lowest observed price can be established only after the window ends on 31 July 2026; it does not predict later prices.

### How far below the starting price is the lowest observed price?

Among products whose low was below their starting price, the median difference was 13.4%.

### What does lowest observed mean?

The lowest price recorded for a product from 1 May 2026 to 31 July 2026, not a claim about prices outside that window.

### Why do you include only some products?

Products needed an in-stock recorded price at the window start; 477,015 with a price during the window but none at its start were excluded.